• 401 •:@0.839890:0.946969:0.881079:0.946969:0.881079:0.932706:0.839890:0.932706:0.005339:0.003814:0.007628:0.007628:0.007628:0.003814:0.005339
 :@0.000973:0.067670:0.005263:0.067670:0.005263:0.051624:0.000973:0.051624:0.004291
» :@0.642061:0.071740:0.654933:0.071740:0.654933:0.055694:0.642061:0.055694:0.008581:0.004291
第九章 集中民主与天下归一:@0.654933:0.072126:0.869460:0.072126:0.869460:0.058778:0.654933:0.058778:0.017162:0.017162:0.017162:0.008581:0.017162:0.017162:0.017162:0.017162:0.017162:0.017162:0.017162:0.017162:0.017162
  :@0.706419:0.073066:0.715001:0.073066:0.715001:0.057020:0.706419:0.057020:0.004291:0.004291
 :@0.869460:0.073066:0.873751:0.073066:0.873751:0.057020:0.869460:0.057020:0.004291
第四种，多极化。:@0.175676:0.119342:0.335856:0.119342:0.335856:0.103257:0.175676:0.103257:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023
有人认为，比较来说，未来最为安全的世界，最好是能够建立在反映全球极少数:@0.175676:0.143897:0.880810:0.143897:0.880810:0.127812:0.175676:0.127812:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020023:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020023:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020023:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020023
几个强大的民族国家的集体需要的制度基础上，这就是所谓多极化。多极化有两种可:@0.135135:0.168451:0.881125:0.168451:0.881125:0.152367:0.135135:0.152367:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020023:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020023:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020023
能的形式，一种是世界由几个庞大的一体化的地区组成，如北美洲、南美洲、欧洲、:@0.135135:0.193006:0.880935:0.193006:0.880935:0.176922:0.135135:0.176922:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020023
中国和东北亚、东南亚、非洲、中东、东亚和大洋洲等地区。第二种可能的形式：一:@0.135135:0.217561:0.881103:0.217561:0.881103:0.201477:0.135135:0.201477:0.020193:0.020193:0.020193:0.020193:0.020203:0.020021:0.020203:0.020193:0.020193:0.020023:0.020193:0.020193:0.020023:0.020193:0.020193:0.020023:0.020193:0.020193:0.020193:0.020193:0.020193:0.020193:0.020203:0.020193:0.020193:0.020023:0.020193:0.020193:0.020193:0.020193:0.020193:0.020193:0.020193:0.020193:0.020023:0.020193:0.020023
超（美国）多强或两超（中美）多强；或中、美、欧（北美、东亚、欧盟）三足鼎立:@0.135135:0.242116:0.881267:0.242116:0.881267:0.226031:0.135135:0.226031:0.020023:0.020223:0.020223:0.020119:0.020223:0.020223:0.020223:0.020223:0.020223:0.020023:0.020223:0.020223:0.020119:0.020223:0.020223:0.020023:0.020223:0.020223:0.020023:0.020223:0.020024:0.020223:0.020023:0.020223:0.020223:0.020023:0.020223:0.020223:0.020023:0.020223:0.020223:0.020121:0.020223:0.020223:0.020223:0.020223:0.020023
或中、美、俄三国演义；又或中、美、英、法、俄五极权力结构，又或者中、美、欧、:@0.135135:0.266671:0.891092:0.266671:0.891092:0.250586:0.135135:0.250586:0.020023:0.020023:0.019532:0.020023:0.019534:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.019776:0.019778:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.019532:0.020023:0.019534:0.020023:0.019532:0.020023:0.019532:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.019534:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.019532:0.020023:0.019532:0.020023:0.020023
俄四分天下。总之，世界被分为三个、四个或五个或更多既互相联系又互相竞争的势:@0.135135:0.291225:0.881255:0.291225:0.881255:0.275141:0.135135:0.275141:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023
力范围，其中每一个势力范围都有一个大国所控制的国家系统所构成。这种理论认为，:@0.135135:0.315780:0.891092:0.315780:0.891092:0.299696:0.135135:0.299696:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.017574:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.017572:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023
世界在这种类似于“大国协调”的体系当中，有可能消除核灾难。这一体系能够提供:@0.135135:0.340335:0.881173:0.340335:0.881173:0.324250:0.135135:0.324250:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020101:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023
战略上的稳定，并使人类赢得时间，直到有朝一日建立起真正的全球政府。:@0.135135:0.364890:0.795879:0.364890:0.795879:0.348805:0.135135:0.348805:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023
目前的情势好像是多极化。我说“好像”，就是还没有完全形成，而正在形成之中。:@0.175676:0.389444:0.891093:0.389444:0.891093:0.373360:0.175676:0.373360:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.014939:0.020023:0.014939:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.014941:0.014939:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.014939:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023
多极化的形成原因是多方面的，一方面是由于美国等西方大国在走向衰落（只是相对:@0.135135:0.413999:0.881125:0.413999:0.881125:0.397915:0.135135:0.397915:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020023:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020023:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020023
而言，是衰而未退），催生了权力分享，另一方面，以美国为首的西方政治和商界精:@0.135135:0.438554:0.881015:0.438554:0.881015:0.422469:0.135135:0.422469:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020103:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023
英那种陈旧的“例外主义”“集团思想”和认为自己具有独一无二的优越性等令人难:@0.135135:0.463109:0.881251:0.463109:0.881251:0.447024:0.135135:0.447024:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020101:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020101:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023
以接受的傲慢观念，使他们和一切不愿意屈从和追随的国家之间的矛盾越来越大，一:@0.135135:0.487664:0.881125:0.487664:0.881125:0.471579:0.135135:0.471579:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020023:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020023:0.020173:0.020023
批新兴国家在崛起，这也是中国、俄罗斯、印度等国家对西方国家一再失望的结果（如:@0.135135:0.512218:0.881081:0.512218:0.881081:0.496134:0.135135:0.496134:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.016294:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.016296:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.016294:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.016294:0.020023:0.020023
多变的制裁、对人不对己的双标、带附加条件的援助、反复无常等），在这种情形下，:@0.135135:0.536773:0.891092:0.536773:0.891092:0.520689:0.135135:0.520689:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.019044:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.019041:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.019044:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.019043:0.019041:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023
形成多极是自然的，而在没有形成全球共识和政治自觉、没有出现一个能够足以让人:@0.135135:0.561328:0.881125:0.561328:0.881125:0.545243:0.135135:0.545243:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020023:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020023:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020023
臣服的共主的情况下，多极化是必然的，因为大家都想成为一极，同时也都害怕被一:@0.135135:0.585883:0.881255:0.585883:0.881255:0.569798:0.135135:0.569798:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023
大吃掉，所以才出现多极。但是，多极只是一时平衡，这种平衡是相对的，而不平衡:@0.135135:0.610438:0.880935:0.610438:0.880935:0.594353:0.135135:0.594353:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023
则是绝对的，多极是暂时的，多极化还是会导致争霸战，甚至导致碎片化，所以多极:@0.135135:0.634992:0.881095:0.634992:0.881095:0.618908:0.135135:0.618908:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023
化只能是过渡式，平衡总会打破，归下总要归一，当然只是会在更高水平上归一，这:@0.135135:0.659547:0.881095:0.659547:0.881095:0.643462:0.135135:0.643462:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020023
是历史大势，发展的规律，历史的规律，也是人类的共同需要。:@0.135135:0.684102:0.695766:0.684102:0.695766:0.668017:0.135135:0.668017:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023
中国因为一统，所以才有如此稳定发展，世界因为多极，所以才有如此纷争和动乱。:@0.175676:0.708657:0.891093:0.708657:0.891093:0.692572:0.175676:0.692572:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.011551:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.011549:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.011551:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023
多极化理论源自传统的均势理论。假如要问均势是否维持了过去:@0.175676:0.733211:0.739951:0.733211:0.739951:0.717127:0.175676:0.717127:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020023:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020023
5:@0.745157:0.734251:0.755168:0.734251:0.755168:0.715531:0.745157:0.715531:0.010011
个世纪里现代:@0.760214:0.733211:0.881050:0.733211:0.881050:0.717127:0.760214:0.717127:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020163:0.020023
国家体系的和平，那么答案则是否定的。欧洲国家体系在过去的:@0.135135:0.757766:0.699771:0.757766:0.699771:0.741682:0.135135:0.741682:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023
5:@0.704877:0.758806:0.714888:0.758806:0.714888:0.740086:0.704877:0.740086:0.010011
个世纪里，发生了:@0.719933:0.757766:0.881075:0.757766:0.881075:0.741682:0.719933:0.741682:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023
119:@0.135135:0.783361:0.164428:0.783361:0.164428:0.764641:0.135135:0.764641:0.009270:0.010011:0.010011
次有大国卷入的战争，在那些战争里，有:@0.169434:0.782321:0.530142:0.782321:0.530142:0.766236:0.169434:0.766236:0.020043:0.020043:0.020043:0.020043:0.020043:0.020043:0.020043:0.020043:0.020024:0.020043:0.020043:0.020043:0.020043:0.020043:0.020043:0.020023:0.020043:0.020023
10:@0.535286:0.783361:0.555308:0.783361:0.555308:0.764641:0.535286:0.764641:0.010011:0.010011
次是大规模的全面战争，人们经常把:@0.560314:0.782321:0.880955:0.782321:0.880955:0.766236:0.560314:0.766236:0.020043:0.020043:0.020043:0.020043:0.020043:0.020043:0.020043:0.020043:0.020043:0.020023:0.020043:0.020043:0.020043:0.020043:0.020043:0.020023
第一次世界大战归结为均势的产物。伍德罗·威尔逊是第一次世界大战期间的美国总:@0.135135:0.806876:0.881125:0.806876:0.881125:0.790791:0.135135:0.790791:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020023:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020023:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020023
统，他认为均势就是个邪恶的原则，均势只会导致战争。然而，冷战后的世界是很独:@0.135135:0.831431:0.881097:0.831431:0.881097:0.815346:0.135135:0.815346:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020024:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023
特的，权力变得更为多层面，权力结构变得更加复杂，这意味着世界秩序不可能只建:@0.135135:0.855985:0.881253:0.855985:0.881253:0.839901:0.135135:0.839901:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020021:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020183:0.020023
立在传统的军事均势的基础之上。靠权力平衡来维持国际体系在理论上似乎是对的，:@0.135135:0.880540:0.881125:0.880540:0.881125:0.864456:0.135135:0.864456:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020023:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020173:0.020183:0.020173:0.020173:0.020023:0.020023
但这种体系的根本问题在于不确定性。这种均势更多的是建立在大国首脑之间的默契，:@0.135135:0.905095:0.891092:0.905095:0.891092:0.889010:0.135135:0.889010:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.015123:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023:0.020023