Page 374 - 全球气候变化及其影响Global Climate Change and Its Impacts-185×260

Global Climate Change and Its Impacts

reproducing key climate processes, corresponding weights are assigned to each model before
conducting weighted average calculations. This approach emphasizes the role of high-per-
forming models and enhances the reliability of predictions. Additionally, there is the model
ensemble approach, which not only considers the average of model predictions but also
analyzes the dispersion of model results. By studying inter-model differences, this method
further explores uncertainty information in climate systems, providing richer reference mate-
rials for climate change research.

II. Construction of Future Climate Change Scenarios and Assumptions

The construction of future climate change scenarios constitutes a crucial component
of climate change research, with its foundation involving multiple hypothetical conditions
where different socioeconomic development pathways and greenhouse gas emission scenari-
os are particularly critical.
Socioeconomic development pathways reflect trends in economic growth, population
changes, technological advancement, and resource utilization under different future develop-
ment models of human society. Internationally recognized socioeconomic development path-
ways include sustainable development pathways, regionally competitive development path-
ways, and uneven development pathways. Under the sustainable development pathway, it is
assumed that countries worldwide actively promote green economic transformation, increase
investment in renewable energy, improve energy efficiency, and emphasize environmental
protection and social equity. In this development model, economic growth and environmen-
tal protection achieve synergistic progress, population growth gradually stabilizes, and tech-
nological innovation primarily focuses on clean energy technologies and resource recycling
technologies. In contrast, the regionally competitive development pathway involves intense
competition among nations or regions in technology, trade, and resources to maximize eco-
nomic benefits, which may lead to rapid growth in energy consumption and uneven resource
distribution, while potentially driving technological breakthroughs in specific fields within
certain regions. The uneven development pathway assumes further widening of global eco-
nomic disparities, with some regions trapped in a vicious cycle of poverty and environmental
degradation, while a few developed areas maintain high-energy-consumption, high-con-
sumption development patterns.
Greenhouse gas emission scenarios are established based on different socioeconom-
ic development pathways, representing predictions of future atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentration changes. Common greenhouse gas emission scenarios include Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Taking the RCP8.5 scenario as an example, this scenar-
io assumes that global energy demand will continue to grow during future socioeconomic
development, primarily relying on fossil fuels with slow improvements in energy use effi-
ciency, while lacking effective greenhouse gas emission reduction policies. Under these con-
ditions, greenhouse gas emissions will continue to increase, reaching a carbon dioxide equiv-

• 366 •