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Chapter 8 Climate Change and Future Prospects

Actual observational data on climate change also serve as a crucial basis for strategic
adjustments. If the observed rate of global average temperature rise exceeds earlier projec-
tions, or if significant changes in precipitation patterns occur in certain regions, the emission
reduction targets and adaptation measures outlined in the strategy will need corresponding
adjustments. This may necessitate accelerating the development of renewable energy, en-
hancing the stringency of emission reduction targets, and adjusting water resource manage-
ment strategies in response to precipitation pattern changes.
In implementing adaptive management, establishing a flexible policy system is crucial.
Policies should possess sufficient elasticity to promptly adjust implementation intensity and
focus based on climate change developments. For energy policies, if renewable energy tech-
nologies such as solar and wind power achieve major breakthroughs with significant cost
reductions, policies could enhance support for renewable energy industries and accelerate
energy transition. Establish monitoring and evaluation mechanisms to regularly assess stra-
tegic implementation effectiveness. By setting scientific evaluation indicators such as green-
house gas emission reductions, ecosystemcarbon sink increasesquantity, improvements in
infrastructure resilience, etc., comprehensively evaluate strategy implementation. Based on
evaluation results, promptly identify issues during implementation, adjust strategic directions
and priorities, and ensure long-term climate strategies effectively address evolving climate
challenges.

Section III Climate Change Impacts on Future International
Relations and Geopolitics

I. Climate Change Impacts on the International Security Landscape

Climate change is gradually emerging as a new challenge in the field of international
security, with its extensive and profound implications manifesting in areas such as competi-
tion for resources, territorial disputes, and population displacement.
As climate change intensifies, the distribution of critical resources like water and ener-
gyavailAvailability has undergone significant changes. In terms of water resources, global
warming has altered precipitation patterns in some regions, with formerly water-abundant
areas facing drought threats while others experience more frequent floods. In Central Asia,
accelerated glacier melting has caused unstable river flows, intensifying disputes among
nations over water allocation in transboundary rivers like the Amu Darya and Syr Darya.
Countries remain uncompromising in water distribution negotiations to secure agricultural
irrigation, industrial needs, and domestic water supplies, making water resource competition
a potential trigger for regional tensions. In the energy sector, climate change impacts tradi-
tional fossil fuel extraction and transportation, with rising sea levels threatening coastal oil/
gas facilities and extreme climate events increasing risks to energy transportation routes.

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