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Global Climate Change and Its Impacts

of fossil fuels such as coal, petroleum, and natural gas. For industrial production processes,
greenhouse gas emissions generated during manufacturing in key industries like steel, ce-
ment, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals should be accounted for. In agricultural activities,
attention should focus on methane emissions from livestock farming, rice cultivation, and
nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural soils. In land-use change and forestry, assessments
mustassess the impacts of deforestation, afforestation, and forest degradation on carbon
emissions and carbon absorption.impacts. By establishing a comprehensive greenhouse gas
emission monitoring system, advanced monitoring technologies and equipment such as sat-
ellite remote sensing monitoring and ground-based monitoring station networks are utilized
to collect long-term, continuous, and reliable emission data. Based on this, scientific models
and methods are applied to conduct in-depth analysis of the data and predict future emission
trends. For instance, using carbon emission prediction models based on historical data and
socio-economic development scenarios, comprehensive consideration is given to factors
including population growth, economic growth rate, industrial structure adjustments, and en-
ergy technology advancements to simulate and predict carbon emissions under different sce-
narios. According to prediction results and aligned with national development strategies and
international climate targets, emission reduction goals are reasonably set. If a country’s data
analysis reveals that with rapid economic development, carbon emissions in the industrial
sector are growing rapidly and will maintain high growth momentum in the near future due
to new industrial projects and capacity expansion, then when formulating emissionreduction
policiesWhen formulating policies, the industrial sector can be designated as the key focus
for emission reduction, with targeted reduction objectives established, such as requiring key
industrial enterprises to achievea certain percentage reduction in carbon emissions per unit
of product within a specified period, or to control and reduce total carbon emissions in the
industrial sector through the implementation of energy-saving and emission-reduction retro-
fit projects.
(4) Feasibility Trade-offs of Policy Objectives
From the perspective of economic strength, if emission reduction targets are set too
high and far exceed the country’s economic capacity, this may impose heavy economic bur-
dens on enterprises, leading to significant increases in production costs. Taking a developing
country as an example, if mandatory requirements are imposed to phase out traditional fuel
vehicles on a large scale in the short term and fully promote new energy vehicles (NEVs),
while the country’s NEV industry is still in its infancy with insufficient investment in tech-
nological R&D, relatively backward core technologies (such as battery technology and elec-
tronic control technology), and severely lagging charging infrastructure construction charac-
terized by sparse and poorly distributed charging stations. In this scenario, enterprises would
need to invest substantial funds in NEV R&D, production equipment upgrades, and charging
infrastructure construction to meet emission reduction requirements, which would greatly
compress profit margins and might even lead to bankruptcy risks for some companies, ulti-

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